By Nathan Debortoli (PhD), Andrea Calderón (MSc), Sara Turner (MSc), Rafaela Pedrosa, Mariel Palomeque (MSc), Pedro Ivo Camarinha (PhD)
Climate change is redefining the global mining landscape. Prolonged droughts, heavy rains, floods, and extreme heat waves are no longer isolated events but recurring challenges that affect the operation, safety, and sustainability of the sector. Annual losses from operational failures and climate-related damage are estimated to exceed US$10 billion worldwide, and the pressure to adopt more resilient practices is growing from civil society and regulatory frameworks.
In this context, our multidisciplinary Ausenco team from Brazil, Canada and Peru—comprised of Nathan Debortoli, Andrea Calderón, Sara Turner, Rafaela Pedrosa, Mariel Palomeque and Pedro Ivo Camarinha (as a contributing reviewer)—developed a pioneering study that analyses climate risks throughout the entire mining chain, from mine to port. By combining climate data, socioeconomic information and local knowledge, the study identifies threats, vulnerabilities and exposure levels under future scenarios from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), a scientific body established by the United Nations (UN).
Key findings of the study include:
- High regional vulnerabilities: Brazil, Canada, Chile and Peru show heightened exposure to climate risks such as floods, droughts, landslides, sea level rise, windstorms, forest fires and extreme temperatures.
- Infrastructure under stress: Many facilities are undersized or underprepared for climate risks. This is, in part, due to a lack of technical capacity to incorporating climate project data into engineering projects.
- Significant adaptation costs: The required investment ranges from USD$100 million to $700 million per project, emphasizing the need to integrate resilience considerations from the earliest design phases.
- Need for integrated planning: Climate risk management must be embedded across all the stages of the mining project cycle.
- Project planning and design: Incorporate climate data into hazard identification and risk assessments.
- Construction and operation: Embed climate risks into emergency response, environmental management and mitigation plans to adapt to extreme events and reduce socio-environmental impacts.
- Mine closure: Long-term risks tied to tailings facilities, water systems and containment structures must be addressed, with closure criteria grounded in robust climate projections to safeguard communities and ecosystems for decades to come.
- Build resilient operations: Combining green infrastructure, integrated water management and community partnerships.
- Value of local and natural solutions: Nature-based strategies and community knowledge emerge as critical pillars for enhancing resilience and creating shared value.
- Address compound risks: Assessing multiple and cascading hazards is essential for resilient mining operations, helping prevent chain failures in projects and infrastructure.
Ultimately, the study emphasizes that preventive planning, community participation, and climate-resilient mine closure strategies are crucial for operational resilience, strong stakeholder relations, and lasting sustainability. Responsible mining in a changing climate requires adaptive governance, equity, and a forward-looking vision that actively involves communities at every step of the journey.
The article was published in Brasil Mineral magazine, one of Brazil’s leading mining sector publications. Click here to read the full article (starting on page 41).