With the increase in extreme weather events, ports face unprecedented risks, making investments in climate adaptation an urgent necessity to avoid interruptions in operations and economic losses.
The development of adaptation plans to reduce climate risks is a growing trend for ports. Brazil needs to speed up its response as climate change is a growing problem, especially in coastal regions.
The European Joint Research Centre (JRC), for example, already warned in 2018 of the unprecedented risks of coastal flooding. In the same year, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reinforced the immediate need to adapt ports at risk of logistical collapse.
Since 2020, the World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure (PIANC) has published guidelines and recommendations for climate assessment and adaptation in the port sector. However, many countries (including Brazil) are still taking timid actions in the face of a threat that is already a reality.
The tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul State
Brazil is still reflecting on the serious damage to its port infrastructure and the humanitarian tragedy caused by the floods in Rio Grande do Sul State. These occurred a year ago, and resulted in 184 deaths, 25 missing individuals and more than 800,000 people affected. This event reinforces the urgent need for adaptation strategies in the face of climate change to protect safety, lives and guarantee the resilience of urban infrastructure.
According to the study Assessment of the Effects and Impacts of Flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, published by the Federal Government in November 2024, the port sector recorded damages of R$156.2 million (approx. 31.24 million USD), mainly from dredging and cleaning. The accumulation of sediment in the waterways and Lagoa dos Patos reduced the operational capacity of the ports of Rio Grande, Pelotas and Porto Alegre, as well as 18 private facilities.
Other emblematic events took place in Santa Catarina State at the Port of Itajaí, which in recent years has suffered several periods of closure due to climatic events. In 2017, for example, heavy rain and severe flooding led to the port being closed for three weeks. Extremely strong currents prevented 30 ships from docking and required emergency dredging to restore navigation conditions. The losses generated by the operational stoppage, added to the costs of the response actions, had a significant impact on the port business in the region.
Science already predicted the impacts
The advance of global warming is a critical indicator for understanding current climate change conditions, as temperature is a key factor in triggering cascading effects that generate changes in multiple climatic variables on the planet.
This phenomenon has been documented in various studies over the years in Brazil. One example is the technical note released last year by the National Centre for Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts (Cemaden/MCTI) and the Ministry of Science and Technology, which shows a chronology of research on the risk of flooding in Brazil, with a focus on Rio Grande do Sul State.
Since 2015, these studies have highlighted the country's vulnerability to natural disasters, especially in the south and southeast, areas at high risk due to the increase in extreme rainfall and the impacts of global warming.
In addition, data from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) showed that the extent of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic reached historic lows in 2023 and 2024, showing the effects of global warming.
This impacts port operations in several ways. For example, the shrinking of the polar ice caps is resulting in rising sea levels, intensifying the potential for flooding and erosion of coastal regions. Also, the redistribution of water masses, together with changes in the direction and intensity of winds and sea currents, can impact shipping routes, the safety of berthing vessels, requiring new operational standards, and even overload maritime-port infrastructure.
"Considering that last year we already surpassed the Paris Agreement target, which aimed to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, there is an urgent need to act to adapt the infrastructure already in place," emphasizes Nathan Debortoli, Climate Risk & Adaptation Project Manager in Ausenco.
Port downtime: the cost of stoppages
According to a global survey carried out by NavClimate in 2018-2019, published by PIANC in 2021, 28% of the extreme events reported generated port stoppages of more than 24 hours. In 26% of the cases, damage from the event exceeded US$100M from operational losses resulting from the interruption of activities alone.
In addition to these direct losses, there are also the potential costs of repairs to infrastructure, which for 10% of the events faced by the ports that responded to the survey, exceeded US$1M. These figures quantify the order of magnitude of the losses generated by extreme weather events and port downtime (the period in which the port must suspend its operations due to adverse weather conditions).
Carolina Saba, a consultant at Ausenco, points out that ports operate with limits for wind, current and waves, which, when exceeded, require the suspension of operations, generating high financial losses.
She also emphasises that the effects of changes in water currents are not always immediate, such as sediment transport in access channels, which can be aggravated by deforestation for agricultural activities in urban areas. This excess sedimentation can reduce the depth of channels and mooring areas, resulting in hidden costs due to the need for frequent dredging.
"The lack of an adaptation plan can lead to various consequences, such as operational stoppages, supply crises and damage to the company's reputation, as well as financial losses, social and environmental impacts and risks to human life," says Carolina.
Ausenco's solution to climate change impacts on port operations
Ausenco stands out by bringing a holistic view to climate risk, going beyond just providing technical data on operational risks. Based on international protocols such as PIANC and ISOs, the company carries out complete climate diagnoses, identifies risk areas and develops well-structured adaptation plans that incorporate planning strategies, infrastructure and even nature-based solutions.
"With experience in countries such as Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Canada, Ausenco brings an innovative approach to Brazil, focusing on logistics chains from production to the port. We aim to guide clients on how to act effectively to reduce risks, transforming complex data into practical, personalized solutions," says Carolina Saba.
The approach applies to both public and private organizations, considering differing interests and stakeholders. Our team also helps with compliance with Law 14.904, passed in June 2024, which establishes guidelines for the creation of climate change adaptation plans in Brazil, complementing the 2009 National Climate Change Plan. The legislation guides the preparation of plans at different levels - national, state and municipal - and strengthens the port sector's alignment with international sustainability standards, which are increasingly demanded by investors and multilateral organizations.
"Adapting to climate change is no longer a choice - it's an urgency needed to protect lives, jobs and the viability of the Brazilian port sector. The time to act is now," concludes Nathan Debortoli.